Climate, Conflicts to Displace Billion
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"We believe that forced migration is now the most urgent threat facing poor people in the developing world," said John Davison, the lead author of the "Human Tide: the real migration crisis" report. "We estimate that over the years between now and 2050, a total of one billion people will be displaced from their homes." Scientists predict that average temperatures will rise by between 1.8 and 3.0 degrees Celsius this century because of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels, causing floods and famines and putting million of lives at risk. "The impact of climate change is the great," said the report. |
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that by 2080 up to 3.2 billion people -- one third of the planet's population -- will be short of water, up to 600 million will be short of food and up to 7 million will face coastal flooding.
"Even existing estimates, more than a decade old, predict that hundreds of millions of people will be forced from their homes by floods, drought and famine sparked by climate change," said the report.
The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) on Thursday, May 3, accused the US, the world's economic and military superpower, of being climate enemy number one and ignoring science when it comes to global warming combat.
Nightmare
The report said the number of people forced to flee their homes will dwarf those left as refugees after World War II.
"We estimate that, unless strong preventative action is taken, between now and 2050 climate change will push the number of displaced people globally to at least one billion."
In what at the time amounted to the largest population displacement in modern history, 66 million people were displaced across Europe by May 1945, in addition to the many millions more in China.
While estimating that 250 million will migrate because of phenomena linked to global warming like floods, droughts and famine, Christian Aid said that 645 million will migrate because of development projects.
"Today there are an estimated 163 million people worldwide who have been displaced by factors like conflict, drought and flooding as well as economic development projects like dams, logging and grain plantations."
Security experts fear that the forced migration will fuel existing conflicts and generate new ones in the areas where resources are most scarce.
"A world of many more Darfurs is the increasingly likely nightmare scenario," said the report, citing the conflict in western Sudan where the UN estimates at least 200,000 people have been killed and 2 million forced out of their homes.
Christian Aid said that while many climate refugees would cross national borders, many millions more would be unable to leave their countries and would remain largely invisible to outsiders.
"These internally displaced persons, or IDPs, have no rights under international law and no official voice," the report said.
"Their living conditions are likely to be desperate and in many cases their lives will be in danger."
Click to Read the report
